Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 14.141812 16.174645 18.366364 20.901293 23.748522 26.843812 30.459540
2025-02-16 10.994642 13.714973 16.877730 20.811380 25.556333 31.077996 37.971837
2025-02-23 9.399470 12.399965 16.061016 20.828453 26.841078 34.137916 43.625528
2025-03-02 8.282429 11.484469 15.562038 21.090231 28.337575 37.456913 49.733124
2025-03-09 7.348587 10.647237 15.008333 21.132041 29.433100 40.207369 55.146640
2025-03-16 6.500649 9.812737 14.346751 20.922602 30.113720 42.384561 59.859983
2025-03-23 5.922983 9.280738 14.024677 21.108454 31.284597 45.215834 65.531015
2025-03-30 5.572502 9.033335 14.064872 21.778110 33.134044 49.032230 72.707748
2025-04-06 5.036812 8.449126 13.554611 21.589049 33.709693 51.057485 77.430609
2025-04-13 4.355017 7.568309 12.520187 20.524765 32.903664 51.021957 79.145891
2025-04-20 4.110139 7.359731 12.493900 20.982046 34.383420 54.366297 85.923580
2025-04-27 3.884547 7.159379 12.458784 21.410730 35.825757 57.702313 92.817149
2025-05-04 3.550243 6.751111 12.066522 21.255713 36.368284 59.738393 97.904851
2025-05-11 3.223046 6.324256 11.609017 20.957961 36.657788 61.389853 102.472468
2025-05-18 2.998489 6.057569 11.396711 21.044225 37.558697 64.017788 108.653857
2025-05-25 2.820241 5.858426 11.283337 21.285001 38.718307 67.097746 115.672943
2025-06-01 2.629142 5.616096 11.072332 21.335036 39.546871 69.663204 121.952456
2025-06-08 2.418176 5.314514 10.728950 21.121159 39.898724 71.444097 127.002345
2025-06-15 2.280599 5.145169 10.615019 21.309489 40.953358 74.429538 134.155026
2025-06-22 2.215002 5.116161 10.762136 21.984596 42.901716 79.002642 144.151049
2025-06-29 2.050042 4.864108 10.460333 21.794017 43.270207 80.869463 149.598611
2025-07-06 1.801758 4.409069 9.724139 20.720545 41.952097 79.728993 149.790630
2025-07-13 1.736997 4.350030 9.776142 21.181775 43.511499 83.719537 159.089884